RISK ASSESSMENT USING THE COMPREHENSIVE DATABASE OF EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE MODELS IN AND AROUND JAPAN IN TERMS OF POPULATION EXPOSURE TO SEISMIC INTENSITY

Abstract

 For probabilistic seismic hazard maps produced by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, the comprehensive database of earthquake occurrence models in and around Japan is compiled and provided via the website of the Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station (J-SHIS). Taking advantage of the database, this study evaluates the relationship between population exposure to five ranks of JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) seismic intensity scale and the probability of occurrence of earthquakes within 30 years ("P-PEX relation") for all the potential events of earthquake. On this basis, seismic risk curves and expected population exposure are assesses for the period of 30 years. Finally, as an extended application, risk assessment of disruption of utility lifelines are performed for electric power, water and city gas supply focusing on four kinds of duration of disruption: immediately, three days, one week and one month after the earthquake.