DEVELOPMENT OF NUMERICAL MODEL TO PREDICT RESTORATION TIME OF EXPRESSWAYS AFTER A LARGE-SCALE EARTHQUAKE CONSIDERING THE STRUCTURAL TYPES

Abstract

 This study tries to develop a more accurate numerical model to estimate the restoration time of the expressways after an earthquake. The previous model developed by Uehara and Maruyama (2016) underestimated the restoration time after the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. Hence, the authors performed a series of logistic regression analyses to develop the numerical model for the estimation of the restoration time of the expressways after an earthquake. The authors modified the numerical model to include the effects of road-structural types on the restoration time after the actual earthquakes. The numerical model was applied to a scenario earthquake in the Nankai Trough, and the restoration time was estimated.