SAFETY EVALUATION OF THE TRAIN IN THE STRONG WIND MODELED BY STOCHASTIC WIND MODELS

Abstract

 According to the current regulation regarding the railway train operation, when a wind speed exceeding the prescribed value is observed by the anemometer, the train shall reduce its speed below the predetermined operating speed or stop absolutely. However, in cases where the train is running at a speed slowed down in the strong wind section, the period during which the train is exposed to the strong wind becomes long, whereby there is a possibility that the train safety is endangered. Therefore, after assuming the stochastic wind speed model (a stochastic process), we calculate the probability that the stochastic process exceeds the critical wind speed of overturning while the train passes through the danger zone. Then, we decide the train operation speed at which the probability is minimized. For the stochastic process assumed, we compute an index (probability index) for discriminating the magnitude of the probability of exceeding the critical wind speed of overturning. Then, the probability of exceeding the critical wind speed of overturning became minimum at other time than the train was running at a speed slowed down (less than 25 km/h).