2020 Volume 30 Issue 2 Pages 138-148
It is required to develop technology to maximize the flood control function by making more effective use of the existing dam reservoirs in order to deal with the severe heavy rain disasters that frequently occur in Japan and all over the world in recent years. Since 2018, the authors have been developing the integrated dam management system for super typhoons in the Cross-ministerial Strategic Innovation Promotion Program (SIP) by the Cabinet Office of Japan. In this report, the results of runoff simulations by applying statistical down-scaling method to the long-term ensemble rainfall forecast by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on a dam basin where a large inflow occurred during the 2019 Typhoon No. 19 “Hagibis” were shown. By the analysis, the amount of rainfall, reservoir capacity required for flood control and re-storage after the flood were estimated over time and stochastically. It was shown that it is possible to set appropriate pre-release rates according to changes in the forecast. These results will be applied to the development of the system that coordinates the operation of multiple dams in the river system and maximizes the total flood control capacity of them.
