Abstract
We estimated the future dialysis population in Japan based on the registry data of the Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy (JRDR) during 2001 to 2010. We used the prevalence of dialysis patients in the annual JRDR from 2001 to 2010, and calculated the changes in number of dialysis patients from 2002 to 2010 (9 years). The annual rate of increase was plotted by linear model using the prevalent number in each year. (y=450.372044-0.222751x, R-square=0.7227, p=0.0037). Based on this formula, we estimated annual rate of increase and prevalence in the following years. Results were that the prevalence would reach to its maximum prevalence of 348,873 in 2021 (90% confidence interval: 302,868 to 401,119), then start to decline gradually.
