Abstract
Diabetic nephropathy is the most frequent cause of endstage renal disease with severe complications and poor prognosis. Recent increases in diabetic endstage renal failure (DESRF) patients cause increased utilization of medical resources to provide dialysis therapy for such patients and might over tax the overall health-care resources of society. We tried to estimate future trends in the incidence of diabetic dialysis patients using data from the Patient Registry Committee of Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy.
We calculated the incident DESRF per 100, 000 population by gender and age between 1995 and 2004, and identified linear increases. Then we extrapolated the projected incidences by gender and age to 2010. Future estimates of the general population by age and gender were obtained from the Ministry of Health and Labor. Future incidence of DESRF was calculated by multiplying the estimated populations by the estimated incidences by gender and age. DESRF in 2010 were estimated to be 12, 579 male patients and 5, 756 female patients (total: 18, 335, 30.6% increase compared with those data in 2004). Age group of 50-59-year-olds showed increases until 2004, then plateaued thereafter. The age group of 60-64-year-olds showed increases until 2010, then start to decrease thereafter.
These calculations could provide an estimate of the future diabetic dialysis population, though the estimates of patient number could not include factors related to scientific, economic, and socio-cultural changes.
