93. Analysis on Diversity of Power System Operation with Using Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction System

Abstract

Recently, an electric power system is operated based on a prediction value of photovoltaic systems. However, as the prediction value contains errors, it is important to control the power system adequately with considering the uncertainty of the prediction.

In this paper, we estimate the PV output of the eastern Japanese power system based on the prediction value of solar irradiance. The solar irradiance is predicted by Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) that is a numerical weather prediction delivered by Japan Meteorological Agency. MEPS calculates 21 predictions with considering the uncertainties. We run 21 optimal power flow and analyze the optimized results such as the active power flow of transmission lines.