49　Analysis of the relationship between the serious forecast error of solar irradiation and the atmospheric vertical layer in the global ensemble prediction system

Abstract

In Japan, where photovoltaic power generation (PV) is widely adopted, the development of solar forecasting technology is important for the stable operation of the power grid. In this study, we aimed to analyze the forecast errors of solar radiation and atmospheric vertical layers in a global ensemble forecast system in order to reduce the occurrence of large deviations in PV power generation forecasts. Based on radiosonde observations, we performed a statistical evaluation of the system's representation of the atmospheric vertical layers when large deviations in forecasts occurred.