Time Trend Analysis of Fertility From 1950 to 1979 in China-In Relation to Its Population Policies

Abstract

The time trend analysis of fertility from 1950 to 1979 in China was carried out by employing two-phase regression lines. The nation-wide fertility sampling survey in 1982 provided the data of Total Fertility Rates and Age-specific Fertility Rates, which formed the basis for the present analysis. A certain body of literatures proposed a persuading stage classification for a series of population policies administered in the People's Republic of China since 1949. The present fertility analysis was linked with the proposed stages as shown below. 1) 1949-1956 the period of non-particular population policy 2) 1956-1958 the period of the first provision of birth control policy 3) 1958-1962 the period of the Great Leap Forward Campaign 4) 1962-1966 the period of the second provision of birth control policy 5) 1966-1969 the period of the Cultural Revolution 6) 1969-1979 the period of the third provision of birth control policy 7) 1979-the period of the fourth provision of birth control policy Comparing the three population policies administered by the year of 1979 in connection with the fertility, we recognized the periods during which birth control policies were administered synchronized the changing trend of fertility. The time-event relationship was most remarkable in the third provision of birth control policy. However, in the first and second provision of birth control policy, the mentioned relationship was obscure.