Study on short-term forecast based on the cell-tracking method

Abstract

In order to improve short-term (less than an hour) forecasting, a cell-tracking algorithm was applied to strong precipitation areas. The surface rainfall data derived from an X-band multi-parameter radar were used as initial data, and Algorithm for the Identification and Tracking Convective Cells (AITCC) was used to estimate the movement vectors of strong precipitation areas. The results showed that the cell-tracking system improved the forecast of hourly rainfall compared to traditional pattern matching extrapolation, especially for quasi-stationary rainfall systems such as back-building storms.