Effect of Meteorological Factors on Dzud Damage in Mongolia

- A case of Dornod prefecture in the east Mongolia -

Abstract

In Mongolia, meteorological conditions have great impact on nomad by inducing a severe hazard such as dzud. The frequency of dzud has been influenced not only by meteorological conditions, but also by socioeconomic conditions. By using long term meteorological data and mortality of livestock in Dornod prefecture located in the east Mongolia, we attempted to clarify how meteorological conditions can affect the magnitude of dzud. As a result, total snowfall amount has shown a positive correlation with mortality when it exceeds the average snowfall amount. In addition, the correlation becomes clearer when less rainfall in summer or lower temperature in winter occurred at the same time. On the contrary to this, meteorological conditions such as less rainfall in summer, lower temperature in winter and less snowfall in winter have no correlations with mortality only by itself. These results imply that while main factor of white dzud can be recognized as meteorological conditions, occurrence of drought, black dzuds, and cold dzuds might be decided not only by meteorological conditions but also by other socioeconomic factors in Dornod prefecture.