Abstract
Under budget cuts in public investments, aging of capital stocks for agricultural and rural development appears severe. This paper aims to present a quantification method for such capital stocks including farmland consolidation facilities and analysis of chronological changes and necessary amounts of future investments. Results demonstrated that (i) retirement profiles according to the Weibull distribution, which is more suitable for real deterioration processes of public facilities, show slower decreases in capital stocks when capital stocks enter the decline phase, (ii) capital stocks accumulated by paddy field consolidation account for the largest part of agricultural public capital stocks, and decline more rapidly than others, (iii) future necessary investments fluctuate annually and cannot be decreased by stock management measures, and (iv) the peaks of necessary investments differ by year and amounts among prefectures. Policy implications are discussed based on these findings.
