A Practice of a Participatory Workshop Method Applying Scenario Planning in Rural Area and the Effects on Participants' Learning

—Case study in a town, Kyoto Prefecture—

Abstract

As the external environment surrounding rural areas becomes uncertain and complex, the importance of scenario planning, in which multiple futures are assumed, and countermeasures are considered, is increasing. However, a government-led scenario planning workshop (WS) requires a high level of scenario accuracy, and thus requires a complex process including preliminary surveys and the gathering of experts. Therefore, this study focused on the participants' learning effect of the scenario planning workshop and devised a scenario planning workshop method that can be held with a small number of participants without calling in experts or conducting preliminary surveys. A workshop with an ex-post questionnaire was conducted in a town in Kyoto Prefecture. The results showed learning effects on participants in (1) building preparedness through multiple depictions of the future, (2) updating participants' mental models, and (3) strengthening relationships among various stakeholders. Future issues to be addressed include the implementation of the WS with diverse participants, verification of the range of themes that can be discussed by rural residents, the provision of relevant information to participants to facilitate the extraction of keywords, and the shortening of times allowed for the WS.