A Study on Modeling for Depopulation Structure

A case study of Shimane Prefecture

Abstract

In rural depopulated areas, the difficulty in maintenance of the social system and the increase in derelict land have become serious problems because of depopulation. It is feared that the decreasing in population may have damaging effects in the ecological functions of farmland and woodland.
In this paper, the structure of depopulation, which is important to think about the regional activation due to rural improvement, was investigated as a case study of Shimane Prefecture. First, depopulation factors were drawn from opinions of the persons in charge of depopulation measure in local government, and the interpretive structure of depopulation factors was obtained. The relations of depopulation factors were understood by means of this structure. Next, influential relationships were obtained by using structural modeling (ISM method and Dematel method), and effective measures against depopulation were investigated.
The following results became clear. Insufficiency of improvement of facilities is connected with the decline of farmers' desire for agriculture, the decrease in young generation and the gap in the living environment between urban and rural area, and these factors are connected with the decline of regional vitality and image in the long run. The decrease in young generation is caused by problems about the dullness of agriculture and forestry and working places, and these whole factors bring about the decline of regional vitality and image.