Abstract
In order to extend life-span of irrigation canals and reduce their life-cycle costs, forecast functions of canal abrasion deterioration and joint deterioration were developed, using data acquired by canal survey. First of all, it was indicated that roughness of canal abrasion deterioration can be numerically expressed by crooked rate and encriached area. The deterioration forecast functions were developed in both cases of the period from construction to rehabilitation of canals and joints, and the period from construction of canals and joints without rehabilitation. Redeterioration forecast functions of canal abrasion and joints were also developed. In addition, Markovian transition probability model was applied to forecast the soundness index distnbution of canal abrasion deterioration and joint deterioration.
