Abstract
In view of the great importance of grasping the number of health examination subjects according to the Health and Medical Services Law for the Aged in epidemiological survey, evaluation of health examination and the like, the Author added the results of a new survey to those which the Author had already finished by proposing a stochastic formula, and examined possible improvement in the formula and its reliability. On the results of inhabitants surveys which have been made in 7 cities and towns of 4 prefectrures across the nation, the above subjects were examined by health examination, sex, age-group, medical care insurance (national health insurance and others), etc., and from populations and numbers of national health insurance by age, the following stochastic formula for the number of subjects by health examination, and by sex, which can be estimated in consideration of the composition of population was devised :
T=Σ {K (A+BK/P) + (P-K) (A'+B'K/P) }
where K=number of national health insurance by age-group,
P=population by age-group, and
A, B, A', B'=constants.
Furthermore, when those subjects just under medical care are excluded, another stochastic formula was devised by multiplying the above formula by (1-regional prevalence) . Interval estimation also revealed that errors of these formulas were within ca. 10% with a probability of 95%. These stochastic formulas, which can be calculated while correcting the population composition of each city, town or village by use of the number of national health insurance of easy access, and when those subjects just under medical care are excluded, by use of both the above number and the prevalence, and that their errors are within ca. 10%, is an effective means of stochastics, which may well be contributive to epidemiological surveys, evaluation of health examinations and the like.
