Abstract
A method of analyzing medical demands by a simulation model is proposed. This method is based on the calculation of essential parameters of health care from ordinary statistics. The essential parameters proposed in the study are population structure, morbidity rate; recovery rate, death rate, patient registration rate and awareness rate. The method was applied to the Japanese statistics of the national level. The method showed that in the past 20 years the awareness factor was the most important factor which contributed to the increase of patients. But the model showed that the change of population structure is likely to be the main cause of the increase in the number of patients in future.
