Abstract
A reliability analysis of the Shinkansen vehicle axle using probabilistic fracture mechanics is presented. Failures of the axles are assumed to occur as the result of the growth of cracks originating from fretting corrosion in a wheelseat. Cracks are considered to be randomly distributed in size, and cyclic stresses induced during train operation are used in conjunction with the crack growth characteristics of the material to predict the variation of the crack size with the distance travelled. The probability of failure is considered to equal the probability of having a crack larger than the corresponding critical size. The effects of in-service inspections are evaluated for two different induction-hardened axles. Finally, a series of calculations were performed in order to assess the influence of various factors on these probabilities.
