3306 Proposal of a Design Support Method for Sustainability Scenarios (2nd Report) : Description Support of Backcasting Scenarios

Abstract

Although many scenario development methods have been proposed, these methods are too abstract and have no specific procedure for designing backcasting scenarios. This paper proposes a method for supporting design of backcasting scenarios using logic tree. In this method, logic tree supports determining the structure of a backcasting scenario and creating storylines, which are outlines of sub scenarios. The logic tree and the storylines support describing scenario texts. As a case study, we described a backcasting scenario on "breakdown" of Japanese manufacturing in 2050. As the result of case study, the logic tree systematically supports determining the structure of this scenario and generating its storylines. And composing scenario text is supported by detailing the logic tree and the storylines.