3103 An assessment method of business value of product development project which is integrated with scenario planning method

Abstract

This research proposes an integrated method of scenario planning method which consider future scenarios actively and qualitatively, and discovery driven planning (DDP) method which consider product development value quantitatively and learningfully. This integration enables manager to acquire contextual changing various environmental factors considering various futures, and evaluate the project value in which a firm select an option. A prototype system is developed to confirm whether proposed method can select the option to maximize the expected project value under changing management environment.