A life cycle simulation of modal shift using transportation demand model

Abstract

In order to reduce CO₂ emissions from multimodal transportation systems consisting of automobiles and public transportation, it is desirable to realize modal shift from automobiles to public transportation. Conventional life-cycle CO₂ assessments of a multimodal transportation system has not sufficiently considered the modal shift of transportation demand. In this study, the distribution of travel demand to public transportation was calculated by macro traffic simulation in which the traffic flow was regarded as continuous fluid, and its calculation results were reflected to the life cycle simulation. The CO₂ emissions of transportation system in Suita, Osaka was calculated by the developed models and evaluated by four modal shift scenarios including two extreme scenarios. In the results of a case study, promotion of bus use, reduce about 6% of CO₂ emissions.