413 Optimal Operation of an Energy Supply System Based on Prediction of Energy Demands

Abstract

The energy demands are predicted by using multiplication Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model in consideration of the application of the optimal operation plan to the energy supply system. The ARIMA model is identified to reduce the vibration and the fluctuation of the predicted values in addition to the minimization of the error margin of the predicted values and the measured values based on it. The prediction of energy demands and the optimal operation planning are held, and the effectiveness of the identified model is confirmed.