The Proceedings of the International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE)
Online ISSN : 2424-2934
2019.27
Session ID : 1180
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DYNAMIC QUANTITATIVE ALLOCATION AND PREDICTION FOR MULTI-NUCLEAR POWER PROJECTS RESOURCE BASED ON MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION
*Dong HongLi GuoyingXu ChunfuHe JieXu Wei
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Abstract
As the parallel implementation of nuclear power projects with multi-technologies at multi-sites, the balance issues of different resources including but not limited to manpower and machines, materials among projects become more and more serious. It is critical for EPC (Engineering Procurement Construction) contractors to allocate and predict project resources in a scientific and reasonable way. According to the life cycle planning with standard curve of resources for projects, the probability model of resource configuration and prediction based on Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS) is proposed, which is combined with project schedule, risk and resource, to achieved the optimization control and prediction objectives plus the transformation of from static to dynamic and qualitative to quantitative. This method takes into account the dynamic progress and risks, the short-term and long-term resource needs, which achieves the coordination and flexible allocation of resources, and reduces cost effectively. Finally, a case study is performed in this paper, and a more scientific multiple Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) manpower reserve plan is developed based on the result to achieve the maximization of resources benefit for decision makers.
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© 2019 The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers
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