Abstract
This paper presents a probabilistic analysis method for the heat rate of steam turbines. The method makes use of probability statistics to analyze the influence of the operation parameter scatter on the heat rate of steam turbines by supposing operation parameter of steam turbines as random variables. A calculation formulate of heat rate mean value and standard deviation and a method to analyze the influence of operation parameters deviating from design values on the heat rate as well as a probabilistic analysis method for steam turbine's the heat rate to achieve target value are to be put forward together with a practical example. The main factors affecting heat rate of steam turbines can be diagnosed by use of the method which provided the basis for raising operation economy of steam turbines.
