An energy mix to reach carbon neutral in the electric power generation toward 2050

- Based on the recent four years records of VRE power generation and electricity demand data in Japan-

Abstract

Both Variable Renewable Energy and Nuclear Power are crucial energy sources to reach decarbonization target, i.e., Carbon Neutral, in 2050 and later. However, the power output of VRE is highly depending on the weather conditions and thus it would be difficult to meet the electricity demand if the introduction ratio of VRE would be increased and also that of dispatchable energy source would be decreased. This study aims to clarify the degree of surplus and shortage of electric power in Japan that would be generated per day in 2050 based on the power generation output data of VRE nationwide and the actual power demand measured from JFY 2016 to 2019. As a result, the introduction ratio of VRE up to 40% of the annual power generation can be a maximum value from the view of the stable power supply. Together with the dispatchable renewable energy such as the hydro power, the total renewable energy amount up to 55% would be pursued in Japan. The rest has to be supplied by the nuclear power, fossil power with CCUS and a number of smart communities. At least, 35% of the annual power generation should be generated by the nuclear power to ensure the stable power supply for the Carbon Neutral in the electric power sector.