2303 Production Volume Forecasting Method for the Demand-Synchronized Production

Abstract

In order to implement the Demand-Synchronized Production, production capacity based on the demand of daily orders is needed, because production line is necessary a few days preparing for equipments and parts for production. So it is significant to accurately predict the volume of orders to be at peak in a few days. For the accuracy enhancement, this study aims to propose a demand forecast method targeting production volumes on a daily basis by deriving a prediction expression from the ordering data. This method analyzes data on the amount of orders placed several days before closing date. To fully utilize the data in deriving a prediction expression, Fourier analysis is applied. Analyzing sample data, we succeed in increasing peak concordance rates to high levels.