Abstract
In the case of recent large-scale earthquakes, some factories which is affected by them have to stop production, and it influenced the entire supply chain in chains. As one of risk measures, there is a decentralization of supplier’s production bases, but it needs large costs of transporting and purchasing machines and duplications of metal molds, jigs and tools. Therefore, after considering cost effectiveness, it is necessary to decentralize supplier’s production bases. In this research, we propose a method of evaluating plans to decentralize supplier’s production bases for virtual scenarios. We consider the risk at the time of earthquake as the expectation which is sales opportunity loss and restoration costs multiplied by an earthquake probability, and then simulate costs in virtual supply chain and evaluate the effectiveness of these plans.
