Abstract
An estimation method of an upper and lower limit of the surface distortion of wrinkled membranes was proposed in order to establish a reliability assessment method of wrinkling analyses for thin membranes. This method calculates the upper and lower limits of the membrane surface distortion by adding a confident interval to the analysis results. The condifent interval was derived from a probabilistic distribution of the analysis errors. Comparing the prediction results with experimental ones, an effectiveness of the calculated upper and lower limits of the membrane surface distortion depends on the uncertainty of the initial membrane surface features. From the results it was presented that the initial membrane surface features are significant factors to apply the proposed method effectively.
