Influence of uncertainty in rail lateral alignment and track lateral resistance on track buckling probability

Abstract

Stochastic evaluation of the track buckling is achieved considering the random process of initial lateral misalignment of continuous welded rails. The probability density functions are obtained by means of the subset simulation. The stochastic influence of statistical parameters in the autocorrelation function of the lateral irregularity on the upper and lower buckling temperatures is investigated. Influence of the uncertainty in lateral resistance on the probabilistic characteristics of the buckling safety is also examined.