A methodology of estimating derailment occurrence probability during an earthquake considering effects of railway structure and train diagram

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate a methodology that estimates derailment occurrence probability during an earthquake through the railway route. The methodology, which is based on the derailment occurrence estimation using track vibration waveform during an earthquake, includes effects of the parameter of railway structures and the existence probability of the railway vehicles due to train diagrams. The trial calculation using the proposed methodology has shown that the train possibly derails when it runs near the epicenter in case of active fault type earthquakes with shallow hypocenter.