A Study on the Reorganization Process of Human Flow Structure around Shinjuku Station Based on a Markov Chain Model

Abstract

Pedestrian mobility around major transport hubs is shaped by the joint effects of transport connectivity and the spatial arrangement of commercial cores, and it is progressively reconfigured through urban redevelopment. Around Shinjuku Station, the opening of Shinjuku Takashimaya in 1996 enhanced the attractiveness of the South Exit area, while the 2016 development of Bus Terminal Shinjuku strengthened its role as a regional interchange. Ongoing redevelopment after 2025 at the West Exit is expected to further promote a shift toward a more polycentric structure. This study partitions the Shinjuku Station area into several zones and models inter-zonal movements as probabilistic state transitions within a Markov chain framework. The paper compares the resulting flow structures across key redevelopment phases and discusses their implications for urban circulation.