Abstract
This paper proposes a new prediction model of typhoon position introducing a hierarchical combination of decomposed fuzzy model, peripheral wind fields around typhoon, and categorization. This model has the feature that a multiple inputs-single output system is expressed by the hierarchical combination of multiple single input-single output fuzzy reasoning units. This produces the merits of less number of fuzzy rules and simplicity of rule construction. We describe a model construction process, applying principal component analysis and multi-regression analysis skillfully to a bulky data of wind field data and time series data of typhoon track. Finally, the prediction performance of the proposed model is compared with the PC method and Typhoon model, which are developed by Japan Meteorological Agency. It is shown that the proposed model is superior to the PC model but inferior to Typhoon model.
