Abstract
The Great East Japan Earthquake resulted in the largest number of dead or missing persons in the history of Japanese disasters during the postwar period. Using Ben Wisner's model, “Hazards × Vulnerability = Disaster,” a substantial number of dead in this most recent disaster cannot be attributed to the enormity of the hazard alone. If so, why was the disaster so enormous? What problems persisted in Japan's disaster planning throughout its postwar history and the fundamental thinking at its foundation (i.e., disaster planning paradigm)?
The disaster planning paradigm in postwar Japan has the following characteristics: (1) scientism, (2) the rise of expected external forces, (3) government centric disaster planning, and (4) centralized disaster planning.
Japan had anticipated the scale of earthquakes and height of tsunamis, and advanced tsunami countermeasures based on those hazards are consistent with characteristics (1) and (2) of the disaster planning paradigm. However, various “unexpected” realities of both tangible and intangible varieties occurred, such as the scale of the earthquake, height of the tsunami, shore levee infrastructure, and evacuation procedures. The number of people who died because of these “unexpected” realities far exceeded expectations. Thus, it is necessary to reconsider characteristics (1) and (2) in Japan's disaster planning paradigm. Analysis of evacuation procedures indicate that methods for driving evacuation procedures within a government centric system, in which warnings are issued from a centralized authority and communicated to civilians (top-down system), is not sufficiently effective. Evacuation procedures employing the contributions of groups such as schools and communities are actually more effective, which suggests that we must reconsider characteristics (3) and (4) in addition to (1) and (2) in the disaster planning paradigm.
Based on the disaster experience of the Great East Japan Earthquake, we conclude that there exists a need for a shift in the disaster planning paradigm that has been constructed in postwar Japan.
