Factorial Survey on the Effects of Child-rearing Support Measures and Tax Increases on Additional Childbearing Desires

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to explore the effect of expanding child-rearing support measures and increasing taxes to secure the financial resources of married women with children who desire to give birth again. Accordingly, a factorial survey was used. Existing research in this field has considered the effects of expanding child-rearing support measures without considering the security of financial resources. However, based on the government’s current measures to counter low fertility, this study contributes to the existing literature by reporting the results of a factorial survey regarding the tax increases necessary to expand child-rearing support measures. The factors used in this survey were five child-rearing support measures, including an increase in the allowance for children and a tax increase. Vignette cards based on these factors were presented to survey respondents, and additional childbearing desires were investigated when the measures described therein were implemented. Analyzing the individual data from the survey administered to married females with children provided the following three results. First, among the child-rearing support measures, those that reduce the financial burden of child-rearing have a relatively larger effect on improving the childbearing desire. Second, if taxes increase, the desire declines significantly. Third, increasing taxes while expanding child-rearing support measures alleviates some of the effects of measures that improve the desire for give birth again. The findings of this study suggest ways to deal with low fertility in Japan. Furthermore, the research method employed in this study can be applied to a wide range of policies, such as social welfare.