A model Traffic Disaster at the Heavy Snow Circumstance Described by Snowfall, Snowcover Depth and Time Lapse

Abstract

Decrease in traffic volume M depending on the heavy snow circumstance is an index of snow disaster at Hokuriku, and is discussed analytically as follows : firstly a factor F_w, depending on the day of week and independent of the snow circumstance, is introduced and M is modified into M^* without this effect. Secondly three factors depending on snow are intoroduced, that is, K_h in term of daily snow fall, K_H of snowcover depth and K_D of effect by countermeasure. For example, the empirical expression is given, using a constant M_o, by
M=M_oF_wK_hK_HK, K_h=1/(1+(h/X_h)m_h)
and so on. The result decreases the relative deviation into 9.5% of Mo from 20.3% for M, and the effects of different factors are found that K_h>K_DK_H.