Predicting Success in Penetration Between Defenders and Midfielders in Soccer: A Logistic Regression Approach

Abstract

This study aims to identify the key factors influencing the success of receiving the ball unmarked between the opponent’s defenders (DFs, Unit 3) and midfielders (MFs, Unit 2), hereafter referred to as the “units”, using logistic regression analysis. A total of 795 plays from 26 group stage matches of the 2018 FIFA World Cup were analyzed. Key factors examined included off-the-ball movement, timing of movement, defensive organization, and pass characteristics. The logistic regression model revealed that the probability of success was higher when there were no DFs in front at the start of movement, when off-the-ball movements such as overlap and pull-away were used, and when the pass arrival time was short. Conversely, starting the off-the-ball movement before the passer received the ball decreased the success rate. Furthermore, the presence of multiple players between the units increased the probability of success. The findings suggest that team coordination and precise timing of movement are essential for receiving the ball in free space between the units. Future studies should expand this analysis to other tournaments and use statistical methods capable of handling nonlinear data to enhance practical application.