A Study on Applicability of State Space Model for Grasping the Effect of Measures of Expressway

Abstract

The effects of events that affect road traffic, such as new opening of expressways and toll changes, are generally grasped by comparing before and after indicators such as traffic volume and loss of time. However, there is a possibility that the change in the effect cannot be clearly grasped due to the influence of different day arrangements or the influence of incidents. On the other hand, past studies apply a state space model to traffic volume observed in time series, and classify them into long-term fluctuations, periodic fluctuations, and short-term fluctuations, and analyze traffic characteristics. Therefore, in this paper, we apply the method shown in previous studies, such as classifying the traffic volume observed in time series into each fluctuation component for the traffic situation observed on the Hanshin Expressway. In addition, we will try to clarify the effects of new expressways opening and toll change by grasping long-term fluctuations. We also consider the applicability of the method in practice.