Abstract
Recycling of waste durable goods will be advanced by the basic law for recycling-oriented society and the law for recycling of specified kinds of home appliances. In order to design the plan for recycling and appropriate disposal of durable goods, it is necessary to predict the numbers of waste durable goods. In this paper, a new prediction method for the number of waste durable goods, using the number of goods delivery, the number in possession and the lifetime distribution of products, was proposed. The number of possessed products and the lifetime distribution of products were analyzed by using logistic function and Weibull distribution function, respectively. Using the proposed method, the numbers of waste car and total automobiles and seven types of electric home appliances (TV set, air conditioner, refrigerator, washing machine, vacuum cleaner, microwave oven and video cassette recorder) were predicted until fiscal year of 2020. Furthermore, the numbers of waste air conditioner were predicted in different scenarios that average lifetime is changed, and hence the usefulness of the proposed method was confirmed.
