Prediction and Stochastic Modeling of Future Typhoon Characteristics based on AGCM Projections under Global Warming Scenario

Abstract

The present study evaluated the prediction power of a stochastic typhoon model for the typhoons to attack three major bay areas in Japan, by taking typhoon characteristics based on AGCM projections under global warming scenario. Utilizing the Monte Carlo simulation as the stochastic modeling on the data of past typhoons for 100 years, it was found out that the number of typhoons that would hit Japan will decrease by 30 percent and that the mean of the lowest central atmospheric pressures of typhoons would be more less equal with one another. On the other hand, it was found that the arrival probability of the typhoons of 920 hPa or less in their central atmospheric pressures will increase by several percent.