Estimating Wave Extremes on the Pacific Coasts of Japan Based on Simulation of Typhoon-Generated Waves

Abstract

Station by station wave computation on the Pacific coasts of Japan for typhoons generated over a period of either 20,000 years or 100,000 years is conducted using a Monte-Carlo simulation system. The system consists of a stochastic generation model of a parameterized typhoon and a backward ray tracing-based wave model on a nested grid with high space resolution. Extreme value analyses of typhoon-generated annual maximum wave height samples reveal that the simulation-based 50-year return wave heights on the coasts are in reasonable agreement with the measurement-based ones and that the probable maximum wave height deduced from 100,000-year wave simulation may be around 10 m greater than the maximum wave height measured in the recent several decades to the best degree.