Influence of Initial Conditions on Local Real-time Tsunami Forecast and its Setting up

Abstract

The quantitative tsunami forecasting system by JMA is in operation on the data base, in which the initial condition of tsunamis are assumed with less consideration of the earthquakes property in the region and with uncertainty. Since the initial condition for a tsunami simulation each local area is the most important to ensure the accuracy, the present study evaluates its effects on the tsunami heights in the data base. As a result, it is concluded that we should carefully select a strike, a dip angle, width and length by considering the characteristic of the focal mechanism, and especially that the influence of the dip angle affecting on the tsunami height is large.