A Stochastic Typhoon Model Applicable to Storm Surge and Wave Simulations for Climate Change Projection

Abstract

A radius of maximum cyclospheric wind speed is necessary to estimate a wind field by an empirical typhoon model for storm surge and wave simulations. In the present study, a stochastic typhoon model was established which has high reproducibility for mean distribution of passage number and central pressure of typhoons in the northwest Pacific. The relationship between radius of maximum cyclospheric wind speed and central atmospheric pressure was analyzed and parameterized to represent the probability distribution. Then, two different methods to project future typhoons were examined to apply for stochastic typhoon model under climate change scenario. Finally, the stochastic typhoon model which employs the presumed future typhoon tracks as input data was applied to evaluate climate change impact on typhoon characteristics.