Variation Characteristics of Typhoon Surge in the Future of Three Major Bay Calculated by Using Result of Climate Projection Model

Abstract

We simulated typhoon surge around Osaka, Ise and Tokyo bays of typhoons for 10,000 years in each present and future climate. Their typhoons were reproduced by Yasuda(2010) using with a stochastic typhoon model. Yasuda projected typhoons in the future derived by super-high-resolution atmospheric models. In the beginning, we showed that the calculated surge of present climate stochastic typhoons comprised the other of recorded typhoon. Variations of each three bays which were located west to east projected totally similar but different in detail. Near the modal classes their frequencies was decreased, but over the more higher classes their frequencies were increased.