Time-Dependent Decay Model of MRMS Tsunami Amplitudes for Forecasting Decay of Far-field Tsunamis

Abstract

In order to evaluate and forecast the decay process of far-field tsunamis, we have constructed a time-dependent decay model of MRMS tsunami amplitudes. This model is based on the decay features of near- and far-field earthquake tsunamis around Japan and on the assumption that the propagation of tsunami energy is expressed by convolution operations with three effects (source, path, and site effects) and some parameters. Computed examples show that with suitable parameters, this model has the potential to duplicate various real MRMS tsunami waveforms. Through this study, we successfully mitigated issues related to the timely cancellation of tsunami warnings; the problem we are still facing on the issue is to determine parameters and functions of three effects for the proposed decay model of MRMS tsunami amplitudes.