Development of Shoreline Change Model Considering Time Heterogeneity and Tidal Impact and Prediction of Future Shoreline Position under Global Climate Change

Abstract

This study developed the shoreline change model using a random effect of time heterogeneity which was caused by the influence of unmeasured variables, and the model could estimate the effects of the wave energy and the tidal level. The developed model predicted the future shoreline positions from 2008 to 2095 with assumptions of sea level rises and wave climate changes under the global climate changes on the Hasaki coast in Japan, facing the Pacific Ocean. The simulation results showed that the foreshore would be eroded approximately 20 m and the shoreline position would retreat approximately 40 m due to global climate change by the end of this century.