Simultaneous Inference of Credible Interval of Inverted Tsunami Source and Observation Error by a Hierarchical Bayes Model

Abstract

A Hierarchical Bayes model of tsunami source inversion is proposed in this study. The model makes possible simultaneously to estimate unknown parameters and unknown hyper parameters that define the weight of constraints on the solution of unknown parameters. A quantitative analysis of uncertainty on unknown parameters was conducted on the basis of the proposed model. It allows us to obtain not only point estimation but also interval estimation. A simulation-based validation and verification were conducted on the test case of a tsunami generated by a uniform slip of a rectangular reverse fault.