Forecast and Hindcast of Storm Surge Modeling by Typhoon Haiyan in 2013

Abstract

Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines and nearby areas in November 2013, was an extremely intense tropical cyclone that had a catastrophic impact. A series of numerical analyses indicated that the maximum storm surge level was 5-6 m in Tacloban. The numerical experiments show the coherent structure of the storm surge profile due to the specific bathymetry of Leyte Gulf and the Philippines Trench as a major contributor to the storm surge disaster in Leyte Gulf. Based on the comparisons of forecasts and hindcasts, it was difficult to predict the storm surge a few days in advance, quantitatively.