SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR HIGH WATER PREDICTION DEPENDING ON THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EXPECTED TYPHOON AND LOW PRESSURE COURSES

Abstract

 In this study, we present the results of a sensivity analysis for maximum water height prediction based on the difference between the assumed typhoon and low pressure courses and the depression data used for high tide prediction calculations.
 The results confirm that the typhoon courses which generate the highest tides are forecasted through the coast direction, the shore topography, and the wind direction. The forecast accuracy is further improved using a sensitivity analysis. In the case of a low pressure field that excludes the typhoon effect, we present a method for calculating the depression data using a natural neighbor interpolation. The estimated high tide values using this model were in good agreement with those of measured tides. Finally, we present the sensivity analysis considering not only parallel moving of the center of depression but also the shore topography, and the wind direction is necessary for the setting of low pressure course.