Abstract
Design procedure of coastal embankment compares tsunami height and storm surge height and employs higher value as a crown level. Estimation of tsunami or storm surge height is usually based on the historical maximum record or the assumed maximum value. This study proposes probabilistic evaluation procedure of storm surges employing stochastic typhoon model and applies to Suruga Bay. Typhoon tracks passed the target area were extracted from the synthetic typhoon tracks dataset for 5000 years. Storm surge simulation and inundation simulation were conducted by nonlinear shallow water models, and occurrence probabilities of storm surge height were estimated along coasts in Suruga Bay. Statistical analysis estimated a return period of the current design storm surge height at Suruga coast is about 270 years.
