DEVELOPMENT OF EVACUATION ROUTE AND SHELTER ALLOCATION TOOL CONSIDERING INUNDATION OF TSUNAMI

Abstract

 Inundation areas exposed to a future Nankai-Trough tsunami are broad, and we will need much time and money to complete countermeasures. In order to reduce human damages, it will be practical to utilize and allocate proper routes and shelters for the evacuation, which may be instructed by local governments. This study developed a tsunami evacuation simulation model in which agents can select a evacuation route with escaping expected inundation areas, and also change a shelter according to the modified evacuation route. The developed model was applied to a local city in Kochi Prefecture, Japan. We evaluated the number of expected victims due to several disastrous tsunami scenarios. We compared the results to that derived from a conventional method in which agents take a minimum-distance route to a shelter, and verified that our method can find effective instructions that more agents can successfully evacuate.